Predicting Returning Date of Events

Discussion in 'Events' started by Ryden, Jun 16, 2016.

  1. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Introduction
    Many players, including myself, are often wondering whether and when certain events will come back. So I sat down and counted days between certain event groups and tried to figure out whether there existed any predictable pattern - and it did. Despite Events being released and then returning especially early or late for the first time, after two or three re-releases, MW seem to have fixed a pattern for the respective event.

    Method
    As stated above, patterns seem to become more reliable over time. That's why I used a progressive importance approach. The more often an event occurs, the more reliable it gets to predict. That is why recent returns have been weighted more than early ones. By numbers, I just used the relative average of days between the event the the next time it showed up. The Predictability rating of events is based on the number of occurences of the event and how similar the returning time was compared to the last times.

    Findings
    Down below you can find a list with events I examined and the respective data, as well as my prediction on which date the event will return. Of course, you should take a deviation of one week (7 days before and after) into consideration, as it is just a prediciton. This should still be done after my predicitons have turned out to be mostly correct.
    Actual deviation for the last prediction and average deviation for all predicitions are included in the table, too. Events that have not occured two times are not included in the list's calculation, their returning date will be based on which event slots are left free from other events, if a predicition is made at all.
    High-return-rate events as well as permanent rotations are categorized as such in the list, but not specified on their returning dates, as I am not able to update this list weekly.

    [​IMG]

    Colour coding:
    Green: Event is expected to return soon (14 days or less)
    Light Green: Event is expected to return within one month
    Orange: Event is expected to be delayed
    Red: Event is overdue and delayed

    As I'll be trying to keep the results consistently updated, feel free to post your insights and speculations about the returning time of events, or make a suggestion on how to improve the table!

    _________________________________
    Changelog:
    2017-02-02
    - Added Companios Rate Z Up Event
    - Added Battle Champs Event Quest & Vengeful Heart Event Quest
    - Removed Metal Zone 5&6 due to permanent integration of MZ5 into the Arena
    - Added Eidolons 1/2 Stamina
    - Added PVP-Cups
    - Added Luck Boost Event
    2016-10-13
    - Added Companions of Truth 2S+ guaranteed Pulls Event
    2016-10-06
    - Added 3x Companions Upgrade Event
    - Changed event classification of Metal Zone events and BLO to permanent, regular rotation
    - Changed colour scheme: Added orange for events that might expecience a delay.
    2016-08-13
    - Added Overall Weighted Average Deviaton (OWAD) as proper mean of measurement of accuracy
    - Added colour scheme to indicate soo-to-return-events. Dark green = 1 week; light green = 2 weeks
    2016-07-14
    - Changed to picture instead of table due to format problems
    - Added Metal Zone 7, MZ 5&6 King Versions and Upgrade Companions events to the table
    2016-06-29
    - Problems with the table formatting recognized
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2017
  2. Ant.

    Ant. Member

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    If you can add one column called last event date, that would be great.
     
  3. Anubarak

    Anubarak Active Member

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    First: thank you very much, that's what I was looking for the last weeks :happy:
    It would be great if you could create a table. It looks like that for me^^"
     

    Attached Files:

  4. supergaijin

    supergaijin Well-Known Member

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    can you add "metal zone king in the arena"? ;)
     
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  5. Biotar

    Biotar Member

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    Thanks for the list. I tried to find the pattern for Upgrade Companions Special Event but this seems to be more erratic.
    These are the dates of Upgrade event I found:
    2016.06.09 (19 days)
    2016.05.21 (29 days)
    2016.04.22 (14 days)
    2016.04.08 (30 days)
    2016.03.09 (15 days)
    2016.02.23 (33 days)
    2016.01.21 (32 days)
    2015.12.19 (31 days)
    2015.11.18 (26 days)
    2015.10.23
     
  6. edwin santander

    edwin santander Well-Known Member

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    waiting for tls event, i need some celestial envoys maaann!
     
  7. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    I'm gonna be able to update the stuff on Tuesday, I think I'll have figured out the table formatting until then as well, and add the last dates and further events.Thanks for the responses so far!
     
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  8. Zeroelcapo

    Zeroelcapo Well-Known Member

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  9. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Finally an update.

    Changed to picture instead of table due to format problems, which also enables you guys to download the picture quite easily. Added Metal Zone 7, Metal Zone 5&6 King Versions and Upgrade Companions Events to the Tables. First Prediction results are available, and they're pretty good. 2 Times a predicition within the radius of 3 days, and prediction of the coin creeps was correct by the exact same day. For the gormandizer, MW apparently decided to bring them more often and broke my prediciton. Let's see whether that stays the case.

    We've got some new data for Captive Golem, which is likely to return in a similar interval to Lucia and Bahamut, Levi and Odin (BLO), but for sure that's nor reliable.

    Kino Quests are intefereing with the main events, prohibiting two events happening at the same time. After Tiamat Kino, Slugosaur Kino should arrive and last until 3rd of August. After this, normal event quest cycles could return, favorably with BLO and TLS. Lucia could therefire be pushed a little back, as TLS tends to last a month. Puzzle quest should be the quest that is mostly affected by the Kino quests, as it ran as a tier 2 event quest together with captive golem for the first time. Although TLS and BLO also ran together for the last time in January, that may happen again as their returning dates will fall together and be soon after the Slugosaur Kino ends.

    MZ5 and 6 king versions usually come along every 40-ish days, I am just waiting for another MZ7 to come to predict its return. Spontaneous me would say it'll be as often as the 5&6 King versions, meaning it would return in the beginning of August. (Thanks to supergaijin for suggesting adding these!)

    Thanks to Biotar, I also added the Upgrade companions events (3x experience for the same are not included!), which seem to occur roughly every 20 days, but sometimes with longer breaks and sometimes very short ones. I'm thinking MW is filling free event slots up with this kind of event.
     
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  10. memetichazard

    memetichazard Member

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    Might I suggest you use a png instead of a jpg next time? Although imgur autoconverts large pngs, I think if it's just black on white text it shouldn't be too large, and there won't be the fuzziness from compression artifacts.

    Is it likely that the upgrade companions events will arrive in four days? Wouldn't it have shown up in the events calendar already if that were the case? I think it might be delayed a bit.
     
  11. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Changed it to PNG, as you're right about the quality. Usually, I prefer PNG over JPG, too, but somehow, my screenshotting program had it as default data type. Changed that now.

    For the Upgrade event, I suppose you're right and I don't think that it'll be on time, but rather a week or two later, but we'll probably get new forecasts for events with the arrival of Tiamat Kino, so we'll see about it then. The Kino Events are just messing up many predictions right away, which is a little difficult to adjsut for, but could also mean that we're getting big events immediately after the Kinos are over, which would be awesome.
     
  12. Pizzapotamus

    Pizzapotamus Member

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    They don't really give that much advance notice for "bonus"(10/2, +pulls, xp bonus, or even metal zone) events anymore. Presumably to reduce the amount of saving up for them people do, since it's a free to play game it benefits them more if people use up a resource before the event and get less value from it.
    The upcoming PoT + pulls and the 10/2 companion event got less than 1 days notice for example

    Edit: Overnight they did add an "Upgrade Companions Special Event" to the calendar starting tomorrow, and BLO coming back a few days later.
     
  13. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Wow, I'm just impressed by my own predictions. The events were actually just 2 and 3 days earlier there then expected. I think that pretty much confirms my data. Detailed Update with new predicitions will be done tomorrow, as I'm quite busy tonight.
     
  14. memetichazard

    memetichazard Member

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    Huh. Well, I can only hope that you're right about TLS coming back, then. Although I've also heard other people mention difficulties in bringing it back due to issues of permissions...
     
  15. edwin santander

    edwin santander Well-Known Member

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    or will be better if they pull the celestial envoys on the post trading, in this way nobody will want the tls event :v
     
  16. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Update due to the new event calendar. Two events were announced rather overnight, Upgrade Companions and BLO, and both as predicted (even two and three days early), despite of the irregularities due to the Kino quests. Now, TLS and Puzzle Quest are the only ones that could be affected by a delay, but it seems unlikely for at least TLS. If there is no problem with the permission and rights, I'll expect it right after BLO with the last Kino monster. No adjustments needed for predicitons of other events, as my guesses were mostly correctly.

    Current quota is 3/4 events within 5 days deviation.
     
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  17. doodootron

    doodootron Member

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    Happy to see MZ 7 back in less than a month.
     
  18. justinabsentia

    justinabsentia Member

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    Man I really REALLY hope The Last Story returns... I was so sad that I missed out on Celestial Envoys...
     
  19. BambY

    BambY Active Member

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    When is the next MZ7 ?
    I was not able to do a lot of MZ7.... But I am addicted to it !
    Next time I will have ALL adventurer 90/90/90 :)Best event EVER :
     

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  20. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    I'm gonna update the table this day, as they'll probably release further event stuff along with Slugosaur Kino. I just want to wait unti it's out.
     

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