Predicting Returning Date of Events

Discussion in 'Events' started by Ryden, Jun 16, 2016.

  1. Guaparrón

    Guaparrón Active Member

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    So we have Puzzle quest now, maybe TLS is back when PQ ends, what do you think?
     
  2. supergaijin

    supergaijin Well-Known Member

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    I'd rather it be mobius :lurking:
     
  3. Guaparrón

    Guaparrón Active Member

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    Both are OK for me, I need Tonberries, Mogs and Celestial Envoys xD
     
  4. Anubarak

    Anubarak Active Member

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    I thought I'm the only one without them :p
     
  5. Loner

    Loner Active Member

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    Your prediction is so on point to be honest.
     
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  6. Guaparrón

    Guaparrón Active Member

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    I have 2 Tons and 1 Mog, but that's not enough.
    TLS tomorrow! Our well deserved Celestial Envoys are waiting!
     
  7. Sean Bond

    Sean Bond Well-Known Member

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    I too am completely missing Tonberries and Mogs, which makes me sad that TLS is back instead of FF Mobius (TLS is a way better event, though). I don't mind grinding for a few more CEs, I'd just rather grab some Tonberries to use on PDK.
     
  8. Guaparrón

    Guaparrón Active Member

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    I need Tonberries or CE to try PDK again, I think I can make it with one set of them and only one tapper.
     
  9. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Just doing an update right now.

    Was a little busy over the last week and expected another update in the event calendar as a 2S+ was about to be ready, so I wanted to wait to combine everything. Except for Puzzle quest, which is a little late, everything was within range of prediciton! :>

    /edit: Update with all numbers done. I'm pretty satisfied with the results. All predicitons were within range of one week (even TLS!), except for the Puzzle quest, which was classified as a little complicated due to many events being due in the past week. Since the 2/10 POT event has returned again, data is confirmed further and reduces my prediciton deviation. Now, the event is even two days earlier than predicted.
    A lot of events are due in August, especially a lot of arena events, so they may be a little off. I am expecting the MZ7 to be a little later, because we haven't had the CC for a while.
    Also, Lucia should be a couple of days later, as right now the predicition is overlapping with TLS event. I have accounted for that in my data sheet, but left it as it is in the overview, though.

    Current quota is 6/8 predicitons within tolerance (+-1 week).
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2016
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  10. Kovaelin

    Kovaelin Active Member

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    Is this a comprehensive list of events past and present? Do Puzzle Quest and Puzzle Quest II always happen at the same time? Thank you for making this.
     
  11. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    The list is not including all kinds of events, e.g. the pull events for CoT are not included. It's just the ones that I decided to focus on or was asked to include because of their rewards or importance for the game. I used all data regarding the specific events in my calculation, but I'm just showing the predicition date and the last time of the event as an overview.

    If not specified, event categories usually include all related events. For example, Bahamut, Leviathan and Odin usually appear together (except for the first times the event appeared), so I categorized them as one event as they tend to come back together. As PQ I and II have been always appearing together, there is no reason to assume that this will change in the future.

    /edit: I'm somehow expecting another calendar update tonight or tomorrow night, so let's see what we'll get.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2016
  12. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Another update with the new calendar.

    Added another field, the Overall Weighted Average Deviation as a mean of proper measurement of my forecast's accuracy. As I'm classifying the events into high, medium and low predictability, deviations should count more for high predictability and less for low predictability. To weight them properly, I added the factors 0,6 (Hi), 0,25 (Med), 0,15 (Lo) and weighted the average deviation of each category accordingly, which in addition results in the new value depicted in the table.

    I also added colours to the scheme. Light green represents the event will return in two weeks or less, dark green indicates the event will return in one week or less.

    For the new predicitons, Gormandizers and Coin Creeps are both within 24 hours accuracy, which adds to a good prediction rate. 8/10 predicitons are within range. MZs will return in the next weeks providing nice chances to level up our chars. Only The Upgrade Companions event seems to be a little late, which is suprising because it has had high validity so far. As I'm expecting another calendar update in the next 5 days, we'll see then.
     
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  13. Kovaelin

    Kovaelin Active Member

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    The latest Companion of Truth event is the first one with guaranteed S+ x2, metal minions, and metal tickets. I wonder if it was coincidence it happened around the one year anniversary of companions being introduced.
     
  14. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Yes, that may very well be an issue.

    For updates of the prediciton list, I'm going to wait another week until the Coin Creeps are gone, since MW is now re-releasing events out of cycle and way earlier in order to provide support to the new luck system. Predicitons would be fairly off right now, although I'm still expecting Lucia to appear somewhere during the 8Bit events or directly after them, as they did the same with BLO during the Kinos.
    Also, with MZ7, it seems that it's taking the spot of one MZ5/6 event and intergrates in the same cycle.

    Also, it's still nor sure whether Kinos and 8Bits will form a new event cycle. So much going on right now, so much that we don't know!

    /edit: I'm gonna update the prediciton list end of this week, as soon as we get an update of the EC.

    Also: In about 3 weeks, FF: Mobius Event is one year ago. I'm going out of the box saying that we'll get it again.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2016
  15. Kovaelin

    Kovaelin Active Member

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    Have Bahamut, Leviathan, and Odin had consecutive runs before? Maybe it's going to become a permanent reoccurring event now.

    I really hope to see a return of Lucia and FF Mobius soon.
     
  16. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    No, they didn't. I wanted to wait until 4.3.0 for the next update, because as it seems, Kinos/8Bit etc. as well as BLO will be permanent in Rotation from now on. Generally, I believe that MW has changed some existing patterns with the last updates, so we'll see what's going to change and what's going to stay.

    Seems like I have to analyse most events all over again :<

    Since Battle Champs extends over the 2 year anniversary, the return of FF:Mobius has become less probable, but Lucia definitely will return (soon), as we also got some info about changes made to the event regarding the luck system.
     
  17. Guaparrón

    Guaparrón Active Member

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    There is some information about a new Lucia's stage. I expect her event returning during the next 5 weeks.
     
  18. yeezus

    yeezus Active Member

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    Any predictions on the next companion upgrade event? Would love to turn my lvl 1 Gungnir into a lvl 80 Rune!
     
  19. chomiak

    chomiak Active Member

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    it's in the table on the first page...
     
  20. yeezus

    yeezus Active Member

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    The table hasn't been updated since August, so it only shows the prediction for its next occurrence in August... not exactly helpful for now...
     

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