Tracking Luck Boost (Now including Lucia IV)

Discussion in 'General' started by tbfosho, Nov 4, 2016.

  1. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Here is some data regarding end of stage luck boosts. Hopefully I've captured all of the important angles of it. The run counts aren't as high as I'd like them to be, but my monotony tolerance is lower than it should be for this kind of thing.

    Lucia IV (40 stamina):

    57 runs. 94 Lucky Orblings. 47 party-wide luck boosts. Exactly a 50% success rate at correctly pincering the orbling.

    No statistically significant difference between pincering vertically (20 for 38) or horizontally (37 for 54).

    0.825 (47 successes/57 runs) successful orbling pincers per run.

    Forgot to track normal luck boost for the first few runs, so the run counts are different:

    50 runs (excluding orbling luck boosts):

    8 runs with no luck boosts.
    19 runs with one luck boost.
    13 runs with two luck boosts.
    5 runs with three luck boosts.
    5 runs with four luck boosts.

    65 x 0.1 boosts
    10 x 0.2 boosts
    5 x 0.3 boosts

    80 total boosts for 10 points of luck gain.

    Expected party luck boost per Lucia IV:

    0.825 orblings x 0.3 x 6 ≈ 1.5
    10 natural luck / 50 runs = 0.2

    Thus about 1.7 combined luck for the entire party per run. 23.53 stamina per 1 point of shared luck. 353 runs (14,120 stamina) to go from 0 to 100 for a six member party.


    Assuming no lucky orblings (for 40 stamina stage comparison): 200 stamina cost per 1 point of shared luck. 3,000 runs (120,000 stamina and loss of will to live) needed for 0 to 100 luck on full party.


    20 runs on 7-5 (8 stamina):

    17 runs with no boosts.
    3 runs with one boost.

    3 x 0.1 boosts.

    3 total boosts.

    Very high percentage of 0 boost runs. Not worth the trouble of running.

    31 runs on 26-5 (18 stamina)


    14 runs with no boosts.
    12 runs with one boost.
    5 runs with 2 boosts.

    17 x 0.1 boosts
    5 x 0.2 boosts

    22 total boosts.

    23 runs of 36-10 (26 stamina):

    9 runs with no boosts.
    10 runs with one boost.
    3 runs with two boosts.
    0 runs with three boosts.
    1 run with four boosts.

    16 x 0.1 boosts
    4 x 0.2 boosts

    20 total boosts.



    All during normal luck/normal stamina.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2016
  2. FishInTheDark

    FishInTheDark Forum Event Manager Staff Member

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    I'm tracking my 40 stamina runs as well. I'll join you.

    (0=no luck boost, 1=got a luck boost)
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 1
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 1
    40 - 1
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 1
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 1
    40 - 0
    40 - 1
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 1
    40 - 1
    40 - 1
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 0
    40 - 1
    40 - 0
    40 - 1 - checkpoint 1
     
  3. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Thanks for the data! It's odd that luck boosts don't appear to be scaling with stamina cost after a certain threshold. I'm hoping to get to at least 50 runs on each of my data points to make them a little more reliable.
     
  4. Person Man

    Person Man Well-Known Member

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    25 stamina is 1.5-1.6 gains a run. Via 50+ runs myself on shin en and Mutoh and Bare's shin en.
     
  5. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Main post is updated with more runs. I've started noting the time of day in my personal records to see if maybe there's a server time that's friendlier to luck boosting. It seems basically impossible to stumble upon it, but might as well try.
     
  6. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Tracking lucky orbling boosts from Lucia IV now.
     
  7. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Updated again with a bit of Lucia info.
     
  8. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Probably the last update unless anyone cares. The obvious moral of the story is that luck boosting is a complete and utter waste of time, as I am sure it was designed to be.
     
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  9. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Added my final Lucia runs and cleaned up existing data. Just guessing from the data I have:

    If you get a luck boost, it looks like there's an 80% chance it will be 0.1. I don't have enough data on the 0.2 and 0.3s to make a reasonable conclusion, but I would guess that in stages where a 0.3 is possible, it looks like a 15% chance that the boost will be 0.2 and 5% that it will be 0.3. Again this is based off of a limited number of runs, so take it with a grain of salt.
     
  10. Buulbi

    Buulbi New Member

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    Do you think it is worth to grind luck up to 100 on a stage (like 36-10) during the luck *2 event or half stamina ?

    (first message on the forum btw :eek:)
     
  11. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    Welcome to the forum! I would say without question that it's not worth grinding luck on any stage. If you absolutely have your heart set on it, wait for a stage with lucky orblings.

    I don't have nearly enough data to make a good prediction, but assume you got one boost every time you ran the stage. We'll assume you get around 0.12 luck per run (assuming 80% of your runs give you 0.1 and the other 20% give you 0.2). You're looking for 600 luck to max a full team. That means it takes 5,000 runs on what I would consider the best of circumstances. Life's too precious to waste time on that.
     
  12. Buulbi

    Buulbi New Member

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    okay thx,
    I was just wondered, cause i saw a guy with 100 luck pernya in the weekly challenge... So i guess he farmed lucia IV stage with lucky ordbling ?

    would be much better if we could guess the way to pincer le orbling
     
  13. tbfosho

    tbfosho Active Member

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    He either luck boosted in Lucia IV (with orblings) or just bought the 100 luck characters. That would be very expensive, though.
     
  14. jiang zhaohua

    jiang zhaohua Member

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    I grind at the non-recodable Z's luck in lucia4 quest, and with the cost about 400 runs (about 120 energy refill), I managed to improve 6 Z's luck to 100, it's really a painful process but it's doable.
     
  15. Buulbi

    Buulbi New Member

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    Okay, so which one did you up ? If I was about to do it I'm thinking of...

    schweiz
    sayu
    mogha
    mizell
    peyrna
    senala
    As i'm not sure i would farm the recod for Mizell and Senala (take too much time)
     
  16. derposed

    derposed Well-Known Member

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    260! runs of 34-10 @ 24 stam, with all 6 characters eligible for LB, so 1560 opportunities.

    +0.0 1302 (83%)
    +0.1 209 (13%)
    +0.2 37 (2%)
    +0.3 12 (1%)

    average expected LB per character per run: 0.02
    average expected LB per character per day: 0.61

    I've actually reached the point where I may not actually want to run the trading post battles at 100 luck, even though I can -- I have all of the O/OII companions and I don't need the kino captures. So, I might actually do a ton of 15 stamina kino III battles and see how the numbers compare.
     
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  17. Person Man

    Person Man Well-Known Member

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    This is an even larger set than I got from shin en and Mutoh tracking. I hit about 1.5 gains a run. Looks like you got 1.25 a run. I'm going to start using your set as the standard. That means the prefect 365 day theory for 25 stamina is over though :/
     
  18. derposed

    derposed Well-Known Member

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    There's no guarantee that there's linear scaling of LB vs stam cost, though that is the most obvious option. 15 stam trading post battles and 30/40 stam event battles are the most likely contenders to let us draw a line (or not).
     
  19. Person Man

    Person Man Well-Known Member

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    Lucia 4 I was at ~2 gains/run. The 8 stamina kino/8-bit I was at about 1 luck a week on the old stamina.
     
  20. derposed

    derposed Well-Known Member

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    Lucia IV giving 0.2 total per run gives the exact same efficiency as my 34-10 data, 1200 stam per luck (individual).

    I decided on doing HZ3 this weekend instead of TP battles since my LB team can't easily clear any of the current kinos. I will report back with the results.
     

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