Energy pact chances

Discussion in 'General' started by TrueShadow, Jun 4, 2018.

  1. TrueShadow

    TrueShadow Well-Known Member

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    I'm trying to confirm a hypothesis about the pact chances.

    With Silvers
    The pact chances is distributed as following:
    • Z rank 4%
    • SS rank 10%
    • S rank 15%
    • A and B (silvers) (effectively the same pool) the rest to fill out to 100%
    The silver chances is whatever remaining out of 100%. So, for a new account, the chances for silvers would be 71%. If an account has cleared all the S and SS ranks, then the distribution would be 4% Z and 96% silver.

    Without Silvers
    Now, if the silver pacts is cleared, then the chances for the others ranks will blow up proportionally. The combined chances for Z, SS, and S is 29%, so the chances for each rank are:
    • Z rank: 4/29 = 13.79%
    • SS rank : 10 /29 = 34.48%
    • S rank: 15/29 = 51.72%
    If any of the ranks are cleared, then the other rank will also accommodate for the cleared rank. Say an account had cleared SS and silvers, so only Z and S remains. The chances would be:
    • Z rank: 4/19 = 21.05%
    • S rank: 15/19 = 78.95%
    Also obviously if only 1 rank remains then the chance is 100% for that rank.

    Z Rate Up event
    The Z rate up event increased the base chance for Z from 4% to 8%. If there are still silvers around, then it simply changes the distribution to 8% - 10% - 15% - 67%. Not much of a change.

    But what if the silver is cleared? Then the distribution will also be changed with the new proportion. So for an account with only silver cleared:
    • Z rank: 8/33 = 24.24%
    • SS rank: 10/34 = 30.3%
    • S rank: 15/33 = 45.45%
    Compared to without rateup, Z rate is now 24.24% instead of 13.79%, which is around 10% to 11% increase!

    So, can veteran players like @Rydia , @cjguitarman , @Zyron , and others who have finished Silver Road confirm or deny this?
     
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  2. Rydia

    Rydia PinkPikaPony Staff Member

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    Hello i searched in my screenshots and these are the numbers i can give you that were in the pacts:


    [​IMG]

    So looks like your hyphotesis is correct
     
  3. Zyron

    Zyron Well-Known Member

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    Great job.

    I can confirm the rates with only Z and Silver in pool, only Z and S in pool. Right now I have only Z and SS in pool with a 28.57% chance for Z and 71.43% for SS
     
  4. Rydia

    Rydia PinkPikaPony Staff Member

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    Added Zyron data to the "confirmed rates"

    [​IMG]
     
  5. cjguitarman

    cjguitarman Well-Known Member

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    I can confirm that Z rate is 100% when only Zs remain.
     
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  6. Rydia

    Rydia PinkPikaPony Staff Member

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    Thank you cj for this incredibly useful and rare piece of information.

    The good useful users like you, always willing to help, teaching us valuable life lessons are the true pillars of this community :happy:

    The forest is proud of you <3
     
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  7. cjguitarman

    cjguitarman Well-Known Member

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    I can post screenshots if that is helpful. ;)
     
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  8. Rydia

    Rydia PinkPikaPony Staff Member

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    No I dont need an screenshot to believe your rates :)
     
  9. kaze19

    kaze19 Member

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    I agree with cj. But to add on it: If no roads are cleared your pull is directly affected by pure rng.
     
  10. BlackSama

    BlackSama Active Member

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