I'm trying to confirm a hypothesis about the pact chances. With Silvers The pact chances is distributed as following: Z rank 4% SS rank 10% S rank 15% A and B (silvers) (effectively the same pool) the rest to fill out to 100% The silver chances is whatever remaining out of 100%. So, for a new account, the chances for silvers would be 71%. If an account has cleared all the S and SS ranks, then the distribution would be 4% Z and 96% silver. Without Silvers Now, if the silver pacts is cleared, then the chances for the others ranks will blow up proportionally. The combined chances for Z, SS, and S is 29%, so the chances for each rank are: Z rank: 4/29 = 13.79% SS rank : 10 /29 = 34.48% S rank: 15/29 = 51.72% If any of the ranks are cleared, then the other rank will also accommodate for the cleared rank. Say an account had cleared SS and silvers, so only Z and S remains. The chances would be: Z rank: 4/19 = 21.05% S rank: 15/19 = 78.95% Also obviously if only 1 rank remains then the chance is 100% for that rank. Z Rate Up event The Z rate up event increased the base chance for Z from 4% to 8%. If there are still silvers around, then it simply changes the distribution to 8% - 10% - 15% - 67%. Not much of a change. But what if the silver is cleared? Then the distribution will also be changed with the new proportion. So for an account with only silver cleared: Z rank: 8/33 = 24.24% SS rank: 10/34 = 30.3% S rank: 15/33 = 45.45% Compared to without rateup, Z rate is now 24.24% instead of 13.79%, which is around 10% to 11% increase! So, can veteran players like @Rydia , @cjguitarman , @Zyron , and others who have finished Silver Road confirm or deny this?

Hello i searched in my screenshots and these are the numbers i can give you that were in the pacts: So looks like your hyphotesis is correct

Great job. I can confirm the rates with only Z and Silver in pool, only Z and S in pool. Right now I have only Z and SS in pool with a 28.57% chance for Z and 71.43% for SS

Thank you cj for this incredibly useful and rare piece of information. The good useful users like you, always willing to help, teaching us valuable life lessons are the true pillars of this community The forest is proud of you <3

I agree with cj. But to add on it: If no roads are cleared your pull is directly affected by pure rng.