MZ 4 & 5 + Tear Dungeon open on 30 Dec 2014

Discussion in 'Events' started by Vagou, Dec 29, 2014.

  1. Vagou

    Vagou Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Dec 29, 2014
    Chev4, Asklepios and Twintails like this.
  2. Twintails

    Twintails Active Member

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    Looking forward to Arena MZ4&5 but not the tear event. :(

    Thanks for sharing~
     
  3. Terra-Em

    Terra-Em Well-Known Member

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    Farming tickets time.
     
  4. Kivanc

    Kivanc The Data Keeper

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    Making it sticky for the duration of the event. Thanks for sharing @Vagou.
     
  5. sendru

    sendru Active Member

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    with tear events too,
    is it a more efficient place to obtain tears in the arena?
     
  6. Matthieu

    Matthieu Well-Known Member

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    As a reminder, for all characters currently in the game, you need :
    • 21 Spirit Tears
    • 21 Moon Tears
    • 24 Rainbow Tears
    • 24 Sea Tears
     
  7. Vagou

    Vagou Well-Known Member

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    I personally prefer to run Tin parade as I'm also in dire need of Particles, so I won't run that dungeon.
     
  8. sendru

    sendru Active Member

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    For my record, the dungeon will drop a few particles, any confirmation?
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2014
  9. Sticky Fingers

    Sticky Fingers Active Member

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    Did they change drop rate last patch, or am I just unlucky these days? Right now I got 5 Tickets out of 17 Runs, switching between 6-8 and 6-9... Had 0 for 5 yesterday.
     
  10. Christian

    Christian Active Member

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    What item will drop in this event?
     
  11. Vagou

    Vagou Well-Known Member

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    Metal Tickets rates are pretty low - 10% per mob, and 20% for the big one in stage 6-8 so you have about 40% chance to get one ticket per run... my average is 1 ticket per 2/3 runs.

    @Christian, only tears if I'm correct.
     
  12. Christian

    Christian Active Member

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  13. Tae

    Tae New Member

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    Is there a difference in exp amount between MZ 4 and MZ 5?
     
  14. Twintails

    Twintails Active Member

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    A little more exp from each kill as from MZ 1 to 2 and MZ 3 to 4 to 5. There is a huge spike from MZ 2 to 3 though.
     
  15. Vagou

    Vagou Well-Known Member

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    How nice of MW, 5 free tickets to everyone :)
     
  16. Acero

    Acero Active Member

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    I guess if some time ago the drop chance was better, because i used to get much more tickets per run...

    Its true that now they r giving them 4 free hehe
     
  17. Sticky Fingers

    Sticky Fingers Active Member

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    I kept grinding and had some duo drops in later runs too. Had 20 Tickets in ~ 50 Runs, seems the 0,4 per run still are there for us if you keep the numbers high :D
     
  18. Nyquist

    Nyquist Active Member

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    I don't know why people are talking about 40%... Mathematically with a boss one has 35.2% chance getting at least one ticket assuming a drop rate of 10% per small mobs and 20% per boss. To get 40% you would require 18% of drop rate from the small mobs... So an average of at least 17.6 tickets is expected for 50 runs.

    Also it seems that 27.1% is the expected drop rate in 6-4 and 6-9 all in all you should do 6-8.
     
  19. Kivanc

    Kivanc The Data Keeper

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    Because, your calculation does not consider getting more than 1 tickets (you said this yourself explicitly), again mathematically, you have:

    (0.1 * 0.9 * 0.8) + (0.9 * 0.1 * 0.8) + (0.9 * 0.9 * 0.2) = 30.6% chance to get one ticket
    (0.1 * 0.1 * 0.8) + (0.1 * 0.9 * 0.2) + (0.9 * 0.1 * 0.2) = 4.4% chance to get two tickets
    0.1 * 0.1 * 0.2 = 0.2% chance to get three tickets
    per run

    The issue with your argument (what you say is correct, but the way you say it makes things complicated), getting one ticket or getting two tickets is not the same. So, it does not really makes sense to compute the probability of getting "at least" one ticket. If you get more tickets per run, you will benefit more. Therefore, talking about expected values (instead of probabilities) is easier. At the end, in longer run, if you do a lot of run, it is expected to get:
    0.4 * <number of runs> metal tickets on 10-6.
     
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  20. Nyquist

    Nyquist Active Member

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    Oh but my argument takes into account getting more than one ticket. Getting at least one ticket implies that one gets one or more tickets.

    Uhm to tell the truth you 30.6 %+4.4%+0.2%=35.2%
    So you pretty much confirmed my result didn't you? Easier way to calculate would have been just subtract the probability of not getting any tickets from 1 to get all possible combinations of getting one or more tickets. In this case (1-0.8*0.9*0.9)*100=35.2%

    Indeed expected value is 40% however to attain it one needs to use law of large numbers that is irrelevant if people intend to only play a few times. I think probability is more important than expected value for most people. I won't/can't check how fast the function converges and if it does at all depending on the times played.

    If this is binomial distribution that can be approximated with normal distribution it will converge but I have sadly no time to test it...

    Edited for clarification.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2014

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