[Pact of Truth] "10 times in a row" Special Event

Discussion in 'Events' started by Umowoïs, Oct 7, 2015.

  1. TrueShadow

    TrueShadow Well-Known Member

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    Now that the event's up and the rate is out, let's do some fun math to find out the chances of getting a Z!

    I'm doing this under the generous assumption that the game does 2 guaranteed gold+ pulls and 8 normal pulls. Let's call the former the GPull and the latter NPull.

    For the GPull, I'm also assuming the chances are prorated. So the chances for Z, SS, and S are respectively 8/33, 10/33, and 15/33.

    The chance for both pulls to be gold is therefore (25/33) × (25/33) = 625/1089 = 57.4%


    Now, for the NPull, the chance for a Z is 8%.

    The chance for getting no Z in all 8 pulls is therefore (92%)^8 = 51.3%.


    For the entire 10 pull to have no Z, it must have both no Z from GPull and no Z from NPull, which is 57.4% × 51.3% = ~30%.

    Therefore, the chance of getting at least one Z is 100-30 = 70%

    I also would like to remind everyone again that this calculation is made with the assumption that the game reserves two pulls before the 10 pulls are made. If the game does another method, like doing 10 pulls first and just altering the last results based on the results, then the chances are even lower.
     
    secangel likes this.
  2. Rydia

    Rydia PinkPikaPony Staff Member

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    I think is the former later
     
  3. EASY26

    EASY26 Active Member

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    I will wait 4 guaranteed Z class. No other units classes needed for the new events sadly
     
    Rydia likes this.
  4. phoenix_stealer

    phoenix_stealer Member

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    Finally on golden road, i do 10 in a row during this event
    3 Rainbow !
    Arionne :)
    Arionne o_O
    Arionne :(

    Was hoping for nazuna.
     
    Silver Mitsuki likes this.
  5. TrueShadow

    TrueShadow Well-Known Member

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    Ouch....just....ouch
     
  6. Silver Mitsuki

    Silver Mitsuki The Italian Mod Staff Member

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    Well, still better than 3 Shay :p

    RNG likes to do these jokes, incredible how 3 rainbows didn't net you a Nazuna, I've been there too and... really, it almost hurts from how annoying it is ._.
     
  7. EASY26

    EASY26 Active Member

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    Last pull 10 times in a row:
    Peyrna
    finally but too late and I would have needed moon-characters, but now it doesnt matter anymoar
     

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