Predicting Returning Date of Events

Discussion in 'Events' started by Ryden, Jun 16, 2016.

  1. chomiak

    chomiak Active Member

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    just add the difference betwen last and expected occurence for now, this event has pretty stable schedule
     
  2. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    It's right in the making. This time, since BLO are now in permanent rotation, I had to adapt a lot and change dates and data, so I took me longer. It will be up in a couple of hours.

    /edit: @yeezus
    Here we go, update finished. This week allowed me to properly analyze the new rotation system and I've likely found it out.
    - BLO have been obviously permanently added to the rotation since July
    - Metal Zones altogether (5&6, 5&6 King, 7) rotate in the usual cycle (every 12 days), apparently alternating between MZ 5/6 (both events) and 7 every two cycles. King Zones are less likely than the regular events of 5/6 and 7, though.
    - Lucia is expected to return directly after Battle Champs
    - new coloration added. Green are the events that are expected soon, while orange are events where current event rotation might influcence their dates.

    Also, despite MW trying to mess up my predictions big time through changing event cycles, it seems that most predicitons stay accurate. Overall mean average deviation was reduced from 8,5 to 4,5.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2016
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  3. Kovaelin

    Kovaelin Active Member

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    It may be possible that Mobius would return first before Lucia, since it's close to the one year anniversary of the event and Mobius was released in NA a couple months ago without having the event.
     
  4. LegendaryFrog

    LegendaryFrog Well-Known Member

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    The problem with Mobius is that it's a collaboration with another company while Lucia is a TB original. It's much harder to revisit a collab when you have to deal with another company's copyright material.
     
  5. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Also, FF:Mobius was last year's anniversary Special, which is now replaced by Battle Champs. It may very well be that we'll see it back after a few months, but it may also be gone for good. We just don't know, because the most likely rhythm (1 year apart) is disproven now.

    IF it comes back, my guess would be that we'll have a Trading Post incorporation to the event and will see it returning after Lucia, but more likely around christmas. All Main Event quests will now likely have the Animata Drops and TP accordingly, and Lucia will not be an exemption to that. As she usually lasts for about 4-5 weeks and will start around November 4th (gonna adjust the date, as only 4 weeks BC were known before), we will have our next Tier 1 Event Slot for December 2nd or 9th.

    The main question is how future Events will be classified, as only one Event should be crucial for the TP each Rotation (Tier 1 Event).
     
  6. Guaparrón

    Guaparrón Active Member

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    I need more Mogs, so Mobius MUST come back T.T
     
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  7. LegendaryFrog

    LegendaryFrog Well-Known Member

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    Mogs and I'm sure some people could still use Tonberrys for PDK. Maybe they'll show up in the TP at some point?
     
  8. Sean Bond

    Sean Bond Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty desperate for Tonberrys, so yeah, I really hope either Mobius comes back, or they show up for trade like LF mentioned (I think of Frog from Chrono Trigger everytime I see your avatar, for some reason).
     
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  9. Guaparrón

    Guaparrón Active Member

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    Tonberries may be needed for 100L PDK teams too, I only have 2.
     
  10. LegendaryFrog

    LegendaryFrog Well-Known Member

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    Your comment is inspired. What frog is more Legendary than THE Frog from Chrono Trigger? Avatar has been updated.
     
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  11. Sean Bond

    Sean Bond Well-Known Member

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    Awesome!

     
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  12. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Updated the table with the new data from the calendar update today.

    Both companion events came 4 days late, but that's not too bad for my prediction quota.
    I adjusted Lucias event, as it'll return most probable after BC ends, which will be November 4th.

    I also added the CoT 2S+ event to the table, as it seems we'll be getting 20 CoT tickets every TP rotation - it's about the same cycle as the PoT/PoF Pull events.
    As we're speaking of it, they could postpone the 2S+ event to fit with the last week of BC, which would make sense since they did that before. Therefore, I changed coloration of the event.

    What I'm glad about is MZ7 returning, as it confirms my assumption of the newly formed cycle of all MZ events, which will cycle every 10-12 days with the pattern MZ 5/6 > MZ7 > MZ 5/6 with a 5/6 king zone every third 5/6 event.

    I also saw that the thread has been stickied. What an honor! :shame:
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2016
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  13. LegendaryFrog

    LegendaryFrog Well-Known Member

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    It still bothers me that Marle and Chrono are using the Fire Sword dual tech on the cover when Marle was a water mage and Luca was the Fire Mage. Localization back in the day was bad...
     
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  14. yeezus

    yeezus Well-Known Member

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    My guess would be that the cover is early concept art before they finalized that Marle is a water mage and Lucca is a fire mage. I think Chrono Trigger might be my all time favorite. I really wish they would do another Chrono game, though I'm not sure the current Square Enix could pull it off. At least not without Masato Kato and Yasunori Mitsuda.
     
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  15. Sean Bond

    Sean Bond Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I think about that from time to time. I assume Toriyama hadn't gotten the memo yet!
    I'd love a true sequel (Cross was great but not as a CT game); CT is probably the 1A to my favorite of all time, FFVI. The time playing Chrono was some of my favorite videogame time ever.

    Edit: and yes, Mitsuda is as important as any other person to that series, and more than most.
     
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  16. BambY

    BambY Active Member

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    I think there is also an alternance inside CoT 2S, as sometime there is a MT bonus.
    Last event it was on I guess (or at least, last time I pulled :D)
    But not this time.
    Do we have info on this rotation ? Maybe it is like MZ5/6 with its King version (1 ou of 3), or maybe it is just "random" (unlikely it seems) ?
     
  17. Djoss

    Djoss Active Member

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    The MT bonus is also on this time. For a CoT 10-pull, you get 10 MT and 10 MM^.
     
  18. BambY

    BambY Active Member

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    hoo, my bad.
    It is not the first time I got caught need reading carfully :)
     
  19. Ylumenas

    Ylumenas New Member

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    I don't know if this will help but I've seen some kind of pattern on the recent pull 10 for a guaranteed 2 S or higher adventurers and increased Z rate. After every release of the new characters and recodes there is about a week or 2 or more before new characters and recodes are introduced to the pool that is when the 10/2 pull and Z rates usually occurs. Last time it occurred was 23rd of Sept to the 28th, the week after Amina^ was released and the ones before was on the 29th of July till 3rd of august and 19th till the 24th 2 weeks before Mizell was released. So assuming this pattern we will see the next 10/2 pull after Rap'row^, Sha'plar^ and Amer'pact^ are released a week before the next hiso bar and the release of Grace^.

    Or MW might just be trolling :troll: and not do one
     
  20. Ryden

    Ryden Active Member

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    Yeah, I've also assessed that pattern, but came to a Little different conclusion: It seems that during a 5 week rotation, the 2/10 Event always occurs on the last week - so we'll be having it starting from next friday. The Event is already overdue, as it should have started this week, but I already guessed that it would be a week late.

    As the approximate Rotation is 3-4 weeks, I guess we'll be having another at the end of the Lucia Event. I guess the Lucia Event will Feature less weeks than BC or Kinos/8Bits, but enough to provide us with the two new remaining characters - so 3-4 weeks of TP Rotation.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2016
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