[Updated] 500 (+700) Pact of Fellowship (PoF) rolls

Discussion in 'Rants & Accomplishments' started by Cel, Dec 24, 2014.

  1. Cel

    Cel Well-Known Member

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    Just spent 1.5 million coins on PoF rolls. I'd like to think my rolls were lucky, or they increased the rate of getting adventurers:

    All D class monsters are gone, so only A, B, and C class monsters and adventurers could be rolled. I haven't rolled for >1 month, and before this, I never saw a single one.

    Update: 1200ish rolls total.
    Update 2: finished the PoF.

    670 rolls (w/A-C, includes original 500 rolls):
    • 483 C class (72.1%)
    • 133 B class (19.9%)
    • 46 A class (6.8%)
    • 8 Adventurers (1.2%)
    562 rolls (w/A, C):
    • 518 C class (92.2%)
    • 41 A class (7.3%)
    • 3 Adventurers (0.5%)
    46 rolls (A only)
    • 45 A class (97.8%)
    • 1 Adventurer (2.2%)
    48 rolls (Adventurers only)
    • 7 Sheena
    • 6 Suoh
    • 7 Camellia
    • 9 Maralme
    • 10 Velraine
    • 9 Jaguna
    At this point, Sheena hit 100% SB. I have more data, but it's probably not useful. It seems to me, that every adventurer has about the same rate to get them. Full data of adventurer pulls below.

    Bold is when they hit 100% and removed.
    Maralme
    Maralme
    Camellia
    Sheena
    Jaguna
    Jaguna
    Camellia
    Suoh
    Jaguna
    Sheena
    Maralme
    Suoh
    Sheena
    Velraine
    Maralme
    Jaguna
    Velraine
    Suoh
    Camellia
    Camellia
    Suoh
    Maralme
    Jaguna
    Jaguna
    Suoh
    Camellia
    Jaguna
    Velraine
    Velraine
    Sheena
    Sheena
    Jaguna
    Maralme
    Suoh
    Camellia
    Maralme
    Camellia
    Maralme
    Velraine
    Velraine
    Velraine
    Velraine
    Velraine
    Sheena
    Velraine
    Jaguna
    Maralme
    Sheena 100%

    Maralme
    Velraine
    Maralme
    Velraine
    Jaguna
    Velraine
    Camellia
    Jaguna
    Camellia
    Maralme
    Velraine
    Jaguna
    Maralme
    Jaguna
    Suoh
    Velraine
    Camellia
    Camellia 100%

    Jaguna
    Maralme
    Suoh 100%

    Maralme
    Jaguna
    Velraine
    Maralme
    Jaguna
    Jaguna
    Velraine
    Velraine 100%

    Maralme
    Maralme 100%

    Jaguna
    Jaguna
    Jaguna 100%

    There's a few reports on this forum about the drop rate, but many people seem to experience about 1-2 adventurers per 500~1000 rolls. I saw 5. Someone on the penny arcade forums saw 2 in 1000 rolls (but I can't find the post at the moment). So, I must be really lucky.

    The 5 adventurers were Sheena!!, Velraine, Velraine (dupe), Jaguna (no one likes her), and Suoh.

    Almost done with my current set of PoT adventurers, so getting ready to get another 5 adventurers to boost. Hopefully no dupes, and preferably no Velraine, Maralme, or Jaguna (since they are the A/B class ones). I have about 2.3 million coins to farm before clearing it out, which is about 6.2 weekends of farming.

    Update: Well, it's my last weekend. Everything but A's are cleared. It looks like once B's are done, all that chance for B's goes back into C class rolls. Adventurer chance is still steady at around 1% (or less). Newest adventurers were Sheena, Suoh, Sheena, Maralme, Velraine, Maralme.
    Update 2: Sheena was pulled with the A-only rolls. That's it for my rolls. Maybe someone can make good use of them.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2015
  2. Kevinrealk

    Kevinrealk Well-Known Member

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    I spend about 2.7 million coins before he left one of the first adventurers (Jaguna), after spending about 900,000 coins, I came second, this time, one more decent (Sheena), now just need 1.8 million for have completed the list of all the enemies with their B% to 100%, including adventurers recruitable in the Pact (also with B% to 100%)

    * For the adventurers, I just get a SS, active 3 jobs and leveling until at Nvl.20, so when I go repeated in the Pact of Fellowship, up 5 levels and remain at Nvl.70 when they their B% to 100%
     
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  3. Vorpal

    Vorpal Active Member

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    I got Camellia after cleaning out all the C class stuff. Was probably around 150-200 pulls for me.
     
  4. selenta

    selenta New Member

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    You may have been lucky, it's really hard to tell with an expected variance that large, but if I were a betting man I'd bet you're average. Why? Because the numbers you have lead to some pretty natural feeling numbers (for a game like this) of 75%/20%/4%/1%. Which makes it look like the system works like one of two ways, either:

    - you first roll on D Rank, which you have a 75% change of getting, if you fail the roll, you roll for a C Rank, which you have a 75% chance of getting, if you fail that roll you have a 75% chance for B rank, etc. If you fail all your monster rolls, you get a random one of the heros.
    OR
    - each monster adds a number of lots to the pool proportional to its rank (like a C rank might add 75 lots, while an A only adds 5, and a hero adds 1), and a single lot is drawn from the pool for each pact

    These are only practically different in that in the second scenario the odds for getting a particular rank change as you 100% monsters. This does mean that there is a very obvious way for a dedicated individual (not me) to test this: manually 100% a large percentage (at least 3/4, preferably all of them) of the monsters in one of the Ranks (A Rank maybe?) and then perform another similar sample size and see if the number of that rank decreases.
     
  5. Cel

    Cel Well-Known Member

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    We've mostly determined that it's it's closer to the former. There's a few threads of others, but I just wanted to put my data out there, if someone wants to collect metadata. Up until my last D, I was getting D's at about 20% of my pulls. I'll either update this post, or make a new one in about 2 months, when I get enough coins to finish off the PoF.
     
  6. Cel

    Cel Well-Known Member

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    Updated the OP! Did about 700 more rolls - almost done with the PoT.
     
  7. Remney Esguerra

    Remney Esguerra New Member

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    When you pull a dupe adventurer on POF, does it also level up by 1? Or does it only increase SB?
     
  8. ranix

    ranix Active Member

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    both, the b and a class take 5 % sb and 1 lvl. the ss class take 10% sb and 5 lvl( that why when you draw one ss, you need to lvl the 3 job to lvl 20).
     
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  9. Cel

    Cel Well-Known Member

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    Final update, as I cleared the PoF, and got all the adventurers to 100% SB! No more PoF farming....for a while at least.
     
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  10. Chev4

    Chev4 Active Member

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    Congratulations. guess it's now time to start skill boosting (so much grinding :().
     
  11. Cel

    Cel Well-Known Member

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    Yup. That's why I browse the forums while doing it, or chat, usually someone's always saying something in chat.
     
  12. Chev4

    Chev4 Active Member

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    Are you also trying to empty PoT?
     
  13. Cel

    Cel Well-Known Member

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    That's the ultimate goal, to collect everything. 21 characters at 100% so far, working on 6 more atm.
     
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  14. Tenjin

    Tenjin Active Member

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    That is the same number as me.... 21! Nice! Though, I am only working on 5 at the moment because the dupe chance is 23.7%....
     
  15. Cel

    Cel Well-Known Member

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    Well, there's 6 spots on a squad, so yeah. I used to do 5, but it's easier with MZ changes that I can level 3 at a time, and 3x2 = 6. I get dupes, it's part of the process, it only gets worse as you finish off the A/B classes.
     
  16. dancy911

    dancy911 Member

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    Congrats Cel, so far I only completed 3. I decided to empty PoF first, so it slowed me down a bit. By the way, what do you mean when you say that it only gets worse when you finish the As and Bs?
     
  17. Tenjin

    Tenjin Active Member

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    As you reduce the pool of A and B adventurers (by SB maxing them), the chances of pulling dupes goes up as the number of adventurers that you are currently working on stays the same.

    2 examples. Just starting SB-maxing and nearly finished with A's and B's.

    1) suppose you have 2A's and 2B's that you are working on and haven't pulled or completed any other chars. The total A and B pools will be 17 and 15 characters, respectively. Thus, the chance for pulling a dupe is small and only (2/17)*(0.42) + (2/15)*(0.42) = 25.1%

    2) suppose you have 2A's and 2B's that you are working on and only have 4 total characters in the A and B pools left. Thus, the chance of pulling a dupe is:
    (2/4)*(0.42) + (2/4)*(0.42) = 42%

    So as you empty the A and B pools, the chances for pulling dupes goes up and one might need to work on fewer characters at a time to avoid wasted energy on dupes. I should note that the math is pretty bad once you start completing either A or B pools because you have a roughly 42% chance of pulling from the pool. So as an extreme example, suppose you are working on the only B character left in the pool. Regardless of everything else, that gives you at least a 42% chance to pull that particular dupe.
     
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  18. dancy911

    dancy911 Member

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    OMG. And I was thinking about pulling a group of 10 next time. I will have to rethink that I guess. I have 14 Bs , the only one I don't have in that pool is O'pari. According to what you say, if I pull 10 at once I might dupe the dude even 5 times. That sucks. Thanks for the answer by the way
     
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